11/4/2024
Hello! It is the day before the election and I wanted to do a little prediction thing about what's gonna happen, what I might want to happen, and just my general opinions.
I guess we should talk about the big race, the presidential race since that's kinda the only one anybody cares about. If I'm being totally honest I've always thought that there was no way Trump would be able to come back from his loss in 2020. My reasoning is that he has only gotten exposed for more awful things ever since his loss, and in every election he's been in he's lost the popular vote. It would seem odd that he would suddenly come close to victory this year, but I guess I was wrong about that. If the polls are to be believed (and they maybe shouldn't be believed but well go into that in a minute) it seems like he has a 50/50 chance of winning, so that's what I'm going into tomorrow believing. All the swing states seem very very close. However, there are some things that make it seem like the polls may be wrong and overcompensating for Trump. Mostly the Ann Selzer poll that came out yesterday showed that Harris is up by 3% in Iowa. I believe Iowa hasn't gone blue since at least when Obama was elected, so it turning blue would be a surprise. It also suggests that the election may not be as close as it is suggested. Potentially it could be a freakin landslide for Harris. If the poll is 100%accurate it would mean that we would even have a blue Texas, which sounds nuts, and I honestly don't think that is going to happen. Not that i wouldn't be happy about it though. If I had to name a candidate who I think would win I would probably say Harris. I don't know if that's genuinely what the data shows or if it's just because I want her to win, but I am betting that Harris would win.
Now onto some more local stuff, that being Nebraska where I live. The thing I'm most excited about is the possibility of a Dan Osborn Senate win. There have been some polls that have come out saying that the race is either tied or that Dan is potentially ahead. The reason this is significant is that even though Dan isn't a Democrat, he also isn't a Republican, which is good. He is pro-choice and also pro-gay people which is pretty sweet. He was also a union leader which means he might help with worker rights which would be sick. If I'm being honest I would say it's a safe bet that Deb Fischer wins, which would stink but not be surprising. Although she might just be super unpopular this time around idk. Guess we'll find out in the next 48 hours hopefully.
Another local thing going on is the ballot initiatives 434 and 439. Basically, 434 is one that would limit abortion rights, and if 439 passes it would allow abortion in the Nebraska constitution. The ideal scenario is that 434 fails and 439 passes and abortion is legal in Nebraska. There are not many polls showing which one has more support, at least to my knowledge there isn't, but I think an abortion base is generally pretty unpopular across every state in the U.S. The fact that there are two different initiatives about abortion makes me think that some people might be confused about which one is the pro-choice vs pro-life initiative and accidentally vote for the wrong option. Hopefully, that doesn't happen, but I'm not one to put my faith in the median voter. As for other ballot initiatives they really aren't too interesting. There are two about legalizing medical marijuana which would be neat and I'd guess that one is likely to pass. There's one about giving private schools public school money which is lame and I don't like that one. The other one is about allowing sick leave which I think will likely pass.
Well I think that's all my opinions I wanted to get out before the election. Hopefully, everything I want to happen happens. If there is some higher power out there who really cares about me then maybe Osborn will end up winning. I guess we'll find out in the next few days. Of course, if you're reading this please make sure to get out and vote. Even if you're disinterested in the presidential vote there are tons and tons of more local things on the ballot that are VERY IMPORTANT. PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE I BEG OF U!! (gootbye! :))